The best available "picture" of 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) comes from an hour-long doppler radar session at Arecibo at midnight UTC on 28-29 January 2005 when this object was 74.7 lunar distances (0.192 AU) from Earth. A new paper by Jon Giorgini, et al. has been posted at JPL, "Predicting the Earth encounters of (99942) Apophis" (1.36Mb PDF). It explains how "Arecibo delay-Doppler measurements of (99942) Apophis in 2005 and 2006 resulted in a five standard-deviation trajectory correction to the optically predicted close approach distance to Earth in 2029," and goes on to consider all the uncertainties involved in studying the "small estimated Earth impact probability" that remains for 2036. The report includes looking for encounters with other asteroids (e.g., Apophis comes close to 144898 2004 VD17 in 2034), how to best conduct pre-2029 observations (radar is vital), and, briefly, mitigation possibilities. The paper concludes that, if a deflection effort becomes necessary, it "must be capable of producing a change in position substantially greater than the predicted position uncertainties at the time of the hazardous encounter [otherwise it] would instead create an unpredicted outcome or a new hazard." See JPL's summary and more about the above image, which is credited to Lance Benner.
Contents on 15 November '07
- IAU Minor Planet Center
- NEOCP Activity -- 22 listings: 8 new, 14 updated
- New MPECs -- six MPECs
- Observers -- sixteen observing facilities
- Impact Risk Monitoring -- two objects reported
- Chronology
Resources:
- Consolidated Risk Tables - CRT page
- Earth's Busy Neighborhood Traffic Report
- Old & new CRT Archive
- Ephemerides for risk-rated and nearby objects
- Old News Archive & Small Objects Archive
Editor's note: On November 14th we launched an additional semi-automated news page, the Traffic Report for Earth's Busy Neighborhood. (It is "automated" in that, like with this page and the CRT, all the data is collected and published by program scripts without human intervention, but, to be exact, it is "semi-automated" since these activities don't yet run unattended.)
The latest news: framed access (best), 
RSS news feed (flags updates), or redirection - Note: A/CC has a main Web site and a backup site, which now has its own backup RSS news feed.
Navigation tips: Use the << and >> arrows on the menus for each regular section (Observers, Risks, etc.) to move to the previous and next day's news for that section. Use the Index menu item to access specific days this year through a calendar interface. And use the all-up news archive to access news from any time since A/CC began in early 2002. To keep track of what's new each day, watch the Chronology section.
NEOCP Activity on 15 November '07
The MPC's NEO Confirmation Page has 22 listings: 8 new, 14 updated
When last checked at 2354 UTC today, the Minor Planet Center's NEO discovery Confirmation Page (NEOCP) had eight new and fourteen updated listings. Of these, fifteen were "one nighters." So far The Tracking News has counted a total of 31 objects listed on the NEOCP at some point today.
To learn how observers use the NEOCP, see the Practical guide on how to observe NEOCP object by Birtwhistle et al. at Suno Observatory.
New MPECs on 15 November '07
Minor Planet Electronic Circulars
As of last check at 2354 UTC, there have been six MPECs issued today from the International Astronomical Union's Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
- MPEC 2007-V114 time-stamped "07:13 UT" - Daily Orbit Update - see below
- MPEC 2007-V115 time-stamped "13:42 UT" - 2007 VE189 - see below
- MPEC 2007-V116 time-stamped "13:54 UT" - 2007 VG189 - see below
- MPEC 2007-V117 time-stamped "13:57 UT" - 2007 VH189 - see below
- MPEC 2007-V118 time-stamped "14:00 UT" - 2007 VJ189 - see below
- MPEC 2007-V119 time-stamped "14:05 UT" - 2007 VF189
MPEC 2007-V119 - "14:05 UT" - 2007 VF189
- K07VI9F 2007 VF189 (small asteroid, Earth MOID=0.5 LD, H=28.3 ~7m) was discovered at 0642 UT on 12 Nov. by the Mt. Lemmon Survey (MLS), which observed it at Nov. 12.28-30p4 and 12.37-38p3. The discovery was confirmed by the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) (Nov. 13.28-29p7) and Shenton Park Obs. (Nov. 13.59-60p3, 13.69p3, 13.79p2 & 13.84p2). This object was within ten lunar distances (LD) of Earth, reaching 0.6 LD on 14 Nov. (INTRUDER).
MPEC 2007-V118 - "14:00 UT" - 2007 VJ189
- K07VI9J 2007 VJ189 (small asteroid, H=25.7 ~25m) was discovered at 0908 UT on 14 Nov. by the MLS, which observed it at Nov. 14.35-41p12 at V=22.4 and 15.24-26p4. The discovery was confirmed by Great Shefford Obs. (Nov. 14.96-99p2).
MPEC 2007-V117 - "13:57 UT" - 2007 VH189
- K07VI9H 2007 VH189 (risk-listed, Q=4.495 AU, Earth MOID=1.9 LD, H=23.3 ~74m) was discovered at 0825 UT on 14 Nov. by the MLS, which observed it at Nov. 14.35-41p12 and 15.24-25p3. The discovery was confirmed by Great Shefford Obs. (Nov. 14.93p1 & 15.03p1).
MPEC 2007-V116 - "13:54 UT" - 2007 VG189
- K07VI9G 2007 VG189 (Q=4.296 AU, H=19.7 ~389m) was discovered at 1011 UT on 13 Nov. by the Spacewatch 0.9m telescope, which observed it at Nov. 13.42-47p3. The discovery was confirmed by the Spacewatch 1.8m telescope (Nov. 14.28-31p4) and Great Shefford Obs. (Nov. 15.08-11p2).
MPEC 2007-V115 - "13:42 UT" - 2007 VE189
- K07VI9E 2007 VE189 (Q=5.635 AU, H=20.2 ~309m) was discovered at 1149 UT on 11 Nov. by the MLS, which observed it at Nov. 11.49-51p4 and 14.47-49p4 at V=22.1-7.
<< DOU on 15 Nov. '07 >> MPEC 2007-V114 - "07:13 UT" - Daily Orbit Update
- Observations of risk-listed objects
- K07VI4K 2007 VK184 (almost small, arc=2 days, H=21.9 ~141m) from Shenton Park Obs. (Nov. 14.53p2)
- Observations of recently (no longer) risk-listed objects
- K07V12D 2007 VD12 (arc=9 days, H=20.1 ~323m) from Hamamatsu-Yuto Obs. (Nov. 14.66-68p4)
- K07V00G 2007 VG (i=51.2°, arc=13 days, H=21.0 ~214m) from Spacewatch 1.8m (Nov. 14.24-25p2 at V=22.2)
- K07U51R 2007 UR51 (arc=14 days, H=21.5 ~170m) from Spacewatch 1.8m (Nov. 14.19-20p3)
- K07T23B 2007 TB23 (i=38.3°, arc=35 days, H=18.7 ~616m) from Petit Jean Mtn. South Obs. (PJMSO) (Nov. 14.24-25p6)
- Observations of small asteroids (H>22.0)
- K07VD8D 2007 VD138 (Q=4.610 AU, arc=5 days, H=24.5 ~43m) from CSS (Nov. 14.39-41p4) and Shenton Park Obs. (Nov. 14.70-71p3)
- K07V06V 2007 VV6 (arc=10 days, H=24.8 ~37m) from MLS (Nov. 13.27-29p4)
- K07V03E 2007 VE3 (arc=12 days, H=23.1 ~81m) from Spacewatch 0.9m (Nov. 14.10-14p3)
- K07V03D 2007 VD3 (arc=12 days, H=22.2 ~123m) from MLS (Nov. 14.20-21p4)
- K07T68V 2007 TV68 (Q=4.088 AU, arc=32 days, H=22.9 ~89m) from Spacewatch 0.9m (Nov. 14.26-30p3)
- Observations of other objects
- K07VI8A 2007 VA188 (Q=5.714 AU, arc=2 days, H=19.4 ~446m) from LINEAR (Nov. 14.06-11p5)
- K07VI4M 2007 VM184 (arc=2 days, H=21.0 ~214m) from Shenton Park Obs. (Nov. 14.68p3)
- K07VI4J 2007 VJ184 (arc=2 days, H=21.1 ~204m) from Shenton Park Obs. (Nov. 14.53-54p2)
- K07VI4G 2007 VG184 (arc=3 days, H=17.5 ~1.07 km) from Shenton Park Obs. (Nov. 14.50-51p3)
- K07V06T 2007 VT6 (arc=11 days, H=20.4 ~282m) from Spacewatch 1.8m (Nov. 14.26-27p3)
- K07U51Q 2007 UQ51 (arc=14 days, H=20.3 ~295m) from LINEAR (Nov. 14.13-18p5)
- K07U06S 2007 US6 (arc=31 days, H=18.3 ~741m) from PJMSO (Nov. 14.25-26p6)
- K07U03W 2007 UW3 (arc=26 days, H=19.4 ~446m) from MLS (Nov. 14.36-38p3)
- K07S11E 2007 SE11 (i=48.3°, arc=55 days, H=17.7 ~977m) from Hamamatsu-Yuto Obs. (Nov. 13.51-52p2 & 14.65-66p4) and PJMSO (Nov. 14.34-35p6)
- K07S06P 2007 SP6 (arc=54 days, H=18.1 ~812m) from LINEAR (Nov. 12.38-42p5 & 14.38-43p5)
- K07RD3P 2007 RP133 (Q=4.022 AU, arc=60 days, H=20.8 ~234m) from PJMSO (Nov. 14.27-28p5)
- K07R12U 2007 RU12 (arc=63 days, H=20.0 ~339m) from LINEAR (Nov. 14.25-30p5) and PJMSO (Nov. 14.32-33p5)
- K07R09A 2007 RA9 (Q=4.127 AU, arc=66 days, H=19.9 ~355m) from CSS (Nov. 14.31-33p4)
- K07P11U 2007 PU11 (Q=4.384 AU, arc=3 opp, H=16.3 ~1.86 km) from Hamamatsu-Yuto Obs. (Nov. 13.56-57p4 & 14.61-62p6), PJMSO (Nov. 14.33-34p6), and Spacewatch 1.8m (Nov. 14.38-40p3)
- K07L00V 2007 LV (arc=2 opp, H=18.1 ~812m) from CSS (Nov. 14.19-21p4)
- K07D08L 2007 DL8 (Q=4.699 AU, arc=2 opp, H=17.3 ~1.17 km) from El Leoncito Obs. (Oct. 26.20-21p3)
- K05Y55W 2005 YW55 (arc=4 opp, H=19.4 ~446m) from Spacewatch 0.9m (Nov. 14.21-25p3)
- K05X80L 2005 XL80 (arc=2 opp, H=18.1 ~812m) from Spacewatch 0.9m (Nov. 14.16-19p3)
- K05T49F 2005 TF49 (arc=2 opp, H=19.1 ~513m) from LINEAR (Nov. 14.06-11p4)
- K05S71A 2005 SA71 (arc=2 opp, H=18.8 ~589m) from El Leoncito Obs. (Oct. 27.13-14p2)
- K04XG4P 2004 XP164 (arc=3 opp, H=17.4 ~1.12 km) from the Siding Spring Survey (SSS) (Nov. 14.61-63p4)
- K03D14C 2003 DC14 (Q=4.511 AU, arc=3 opp, H=16.2 ~1.95 km)
- K02X04Y 2002 XY4 (i=43.1°, arc=3 opp, H=19.0 ~537m) from Astronomical Research Obs. (ARO) (Nov. 10.33-34p3)
- K02U31A 2002 UA31 (arc=4 opp, H=19.0 ~537m) from LINEAR (Nov. 14.14-18p4)
- J98X02X 1998 XX2 (arc=3 opp, H=19.8 ~371m) from MLS (Nov. 14.48-49p4)
- J94A01W 1994 AW1 (arc=3 opp, H=17.4 ~1.12 km) from MLS (Nov. 14.41-43p4)
- G3902 163902 2003 SW222 from LONEOS (Nov. 14.08-14p4)
- G2004 162004 1991 VE from Atlante Obs. (Nov. 12.98-00p3)
- F9608 159608 2002 AC2 from SSS (Nov. 14.65-69p3)
- F2558 152558 1990 SA from LINEAR (Nov. 14.06-11p5)
- E5656 145656 4788 P-L from LINEAR (Nov. 14.07-11p3)
- E4900 144900 2004 VG64 from CSS (Nov. 14.31-33p4)
- E3651 143651 2003 QO104 from Spacewatch 0.9m (Nov. 14.27-30p3)
- D8883 138883 2000 YL29 from El Leoncito Obs. (Oct. 26.00-02p3) and CSS (Nov. 14.13-15p4)
- D8852 138852 2000 WN10 from LONEOS (Nov. 14.26-30p3)
- D8013 138013 2000 CN101 from CSS (Nov. 14.44-45p4)
- 87684 87684 2000 SY2 from CSS (Nov. 14.08-10p3)
- 85275 85275 1994 LY from El Leoncito Obs. (Oct. 26.18-19p3 & 31.20-21p3)
- 68063 68063 2000 YJ66 from LONEOS (Nov. 14.35-41p4)
- 66959 66959 1999 XO35 from El Leoncito Obs. (Oct. 29.06p1) and Boambee Obs. (Oct. 30.41-42p2 & Nov. 12.39-42p3)
- 21277 21277 1996 TO5 from CSS (Nov. 14.13-15p4)
- 19764 19764 2000 NF5 from Spacewatch 0.9m (Nov. 14.27-30p3)
- 11500 11500 1989 UR from LINEAR (Nov. 14.38-43p5)
- 11405 11405 1999 CV3 from CSS (Nov. 14.52-53p4)
- 08034 8034 Akka (1992 LR) from Spacewatch 0.9m (Nov. 14.16-19p3)
- 05587 5587 1990 SB from CSS (Nov. 14.44-45p4)
- 04954 4954 Eric (1990 SQ) from Mt. Tuffley Obs. (Nov. 14.90p3)
- 04503 4503 Cleobulus (1989 WM) from Spacewatch 0.9m (Nov. 14.51-54p3)
- 04486 4486 Mithra (1987 SB) from LINEAR (Nov. 14.21-24p3)
- 03553 3553 Mera (1985 JA) from Atlante Obs. (Nov. 12.86-87p3)
Observers on 15 November '07
Sixteen observing facilities appear in today's MPECs.
| Code | Observer / observatory |
|---|---|
| H55 | Astronomical Research Obs. in Illinois, 1 in MPEC 2007-V114 -- 2002 XY4 |
| J51 | Atlante Obs. in the Canary Islands, 2 in MPEC 2007-V114 -- 162004, 3553 |
| 432 | Boambee Obs. in New South Wales, 1 in MPEC 2007-V114 -- 66959 |
| 703 | Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) in Arizona, 11 in MPECs 2007-V114 & 2007-V119 -- 2007 VF189, 2007 VD138, 2007 RA9, 2007 LV, 87684, 21277, 144900, 138883, 138013, 11405, 5587 |
| 808 | El Leoncito Obs. in Argentina, 5 in MPEC 2007-V114 -- 2007 DL8, 2005 SA71, 85275, 66959, 138883 |
| J95 | Great Shefford Obs. in England, 3 in MPECs 2007-V116, 2007-V117 & 2007-V118 -- 2007 VJ189, 2007 VH189, 2007 VG189 |
| 379 | Hamamatsu-Yuto Obs. in Japan, 3 in MPEC 2007-V114 -- 2007 VD12, 2007 SE11, 2007 PU11 |
| 704 | LINEAR in New Mexico, 10 in MPEC 2007-V114 -- 2007 VA188, 2007 UQ51, 2007 SP6, 2007 RU12, 2005 TF49, 2002 UA31, 152558, 145656, 11500, 4486 |
| 699 | LONEOS in Arizona, 3 in MPEC 2007-V114 -- 68063, 163902, 138852 |
| G96 | Mt. Lemmon Survey (MLS) in Arizona, 9 in MPECs 2007-V114, 2007-V115, 2007-V117, 2007-V118 & 2007-V119 -- 2007 VV6, 2007 VJ189, 2007 VH189, 2007 VF189, 2007 VE189, 2007 VD3, 2007 UW3, 1998 XX2, 1994 AW1 |
| J93 | Mt. Tuffley Obs. in England, 1 in MPEC 2007-V114 -- 4954 |
| H45 | Petit Jean Mtn. South Obs. (PJMSO) in Arkansas, 6 in MPEC 2007-V114 -- 2007 US6, 2007 TB23, 2007 SE11, 2007 RU12, 2007 RP133, 2007 PU11 |
| D21 | Shenton Park Obs. in Western Australia, 6 in MPECs 2007-V114 & 2007-V119 -- 2007 VM184, 2007 VK184, 2007 VJ184, 2007 VG184, 2007 VF189, 2007 VD138 |
| E12 | Siding Spring Survey (SSS) in New South Wales, 2 in MPEC 2007-V114 -- 2004 XP164, 159608 |
| 691 | Spacewatch 0.9m telescope in Arizona, 9 in MPECs 2007-V114 & 2007-V116 -- 2007 VG189, 2007 VE3, 2007 TV68, 2005 YW55, 2005 XL80, 19764, 143651, 8034, 4503 |
| 291 | Spacewatch 1.8m telescope in Arizona, 5 in MPECs 2007-V114 & 2007-V116 -- 2007 VT6, 2007 VG189, 2007 VG, 2007 UR51, 2007 PU11 |
Impact Risk Monitoring on 15 November '07
| 0000NNN000 Object | Risk Monitor | When Noted UTC | 0000T0000 Year Range | VI # | 000NN00 Prob Cum | T0000 PS Cum | T0000 PS Max | T S | Notes for Today's Latest Risk Assessments |
| 2007 VH189 | JPL Sentry | 1859 | 2010-2107 | 312 | 9.2e-07 | -4.79 | -5.87 | 0 | JPL: "Analysis based on 17 observations spanning .90314 days (2007-Nov-14.35096 to 2007-Nov-15.2541)." Diameter approximately 0.071 km. from mean, weighted H=23.4. |
| 2007 VK184 | NEODyS | 2032 | 2037-2090 | 35 | 1.08e-04 | -2.39 | -2.90 | 0 | NEODyS: "Based on 37 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2007/11/12.140 to 2007/11/14.528." |
| JPL Sentry | 1352 | 2035-2075 | 35 | 1.1e-04 | -2.39 | -2.87 | 0 | JPL: "Analysis based on 37 observations spanning 2.3886 days (2007-Nov-12.13904 to 2007-Nov-14.5276)." Diameter approximately 0.140 km. from mean, weighted H=22.0. | |
Legend: VI# = VI count, Prob Cum = cumulative probability, PS Cum/Max = cumulative/maximum Palermo Scale, TS = Torino Scale
An impact solution, also known as a "virtual impactor" (VI), is not a prediction but rather a possibility derived from a variant orbit calculation that cannot be eliminated yet based on the existing data. Elimination can come quickly with just a little further observation or may take weeks or months, sometimes years. Once superceded or eliminated, a former impact solution has zero relevance to an object's risk. See Jon Giorgini's "Understanding Risk Pages" to learn more.
Chronology on 15 November '07
Times are UTC for when the items were noted or added by The Tracking News.
| 2032 | Noted that NEODyS has updated its 2007 VK184 risk assessment - see above |
| 1859 | Noted that JPL Sentry has posted 2007 VH189 as an impact risk - see above |
| 1526 | Grabbed MPEC 2007-V119 - 2007 VF189 - see above |
| 1432 | Grabbed MPEC 2007-V116 - 2007 VG189 - see above Grabbed MPEC 2007-V117 - 2007 VH189 - see above Grabbed MPEC 2007-V118 - 2007 VJ189 - see above |
| 1353 | Grabbed MPEC 2007-V114 - Daily Orbit Update - see above |
| 1352 | Noted that JPL Sentry has updated its 2007 VK184 risk assessment - see above Grabbed MPEC 2007-V115 - 2007 VE189 - see above |
Publisher information, privacy statement, and disclaimer.
This page is © Copyright 2007 Columbine, Inc. - All Rights Reserved
Any mentioned trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
Various tabular formats and data used on this page are acknowledged as belonging to JPL, MPC, NEODyS, and/or others.
Do NOT copy, mirror, or embed this page, but you are welcome to link to it, and you may embed the RSS news feed. All information here is subject to very frequent change during the day of news compilation. Individuals may make copies for their own private, non-commercial use. Please report broken links or other problems with this page to <webmaster@hohmanntransfer.com> (HTML 4.01 validation).
Important news updates are flagged by A/CC's RSS news feed (link).