A/CC's Consolidated Risk Tables

Earth Impact Risk Ratings Posted in the Last 31 Days

Compiled at 1622 UTC on 5 March 2015

[ The Tracking News | ephemerides | cleared ]

Missing something? Check the archives for objects not under active observation or recent analysis.

Notes: The time horizon for JPL is 100 years from today and for NEODyS is usually the year 2090. Both risk monitors also post a few special objects with impact solutions beyond 100 years. For the latest official risk assessments, and for explanations of terminology and methodology, see the JPL NEO Program Sentry and NEODyS CLOMON2 risk pages.
0000NNN000

Object

Risk
Monitor
 A/CC  Noted 
 Time & Day 
UTC
0000T0000
Year
Range

VI
#
000NN00
Prob
Cum
T0000
PS
Cum
T0000
PS
Max

T
S


Notes for Latest Risk Assessments
2015 DD54NEODyS1602 March 5211412.24e-06-6.30-6.3n/aBased on 87 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2015-01-20.326 to 2015-02-27.624.
JPL Sentry1520 March 1211411.8e-06-6.40-6.400Analysis based on 85 observations spanning 38.299 days (2015-Jan-20.32497 to 2015-Feb-27.623554). Diameter approximately 0.028 km. from mean, weighted H=25.4.
Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 20 Feb., 21 Feb., 23 Feb., 25 Feb., 26 Feb., 28 Feb., 1 March & 5 March   -   References: MPEC 2015-D42 plus DOUs 2015-D47, 2015-D62, 2015-D78, 2015-D113, 2015-E02 & 2015-E17
2015 CT13NEODyS1620 March 2210931.4e-07-7.72-7.920Based on 34 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2015-02-13.515 to 2015-02-27.596.
JPL Sentry1620 March 2R E M O V E DRisk listing removed at 1510 UTC 2 March
Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 15 Feb., 16 Feb., 18 Feb., 20 Feb., 25 Feb. & 2 March   -   References: MPEC 2015-C85 plus DOUs 2015-D14, 2015-D36, 2015-D78 & 2015-E11
2015 CL13NEODyS1600 Feb. 162090-210651.19e-07-7.40-7.650Based on 49 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2015-02-13.308 to 2015-02-15.781.
JPL Sentry1600 Feb. 162090-210636.6e-08-7.65-7.890Analysis based on 49 observations spanning 2.4735 days (2015-Feb-13.30705 to 2015-Feb-15.780574). Diameter approximately 0.025 km. from mean, weighted H=25.7.
Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 14 Feb., 15 Feb. & 16 Feb.   -   References: MPEC 2015-C77 plus DOU 2015-D01
2015 CPNEODyS1654 Feb. 112092-210627.55e-09-8.64-8.770Based on 27 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2015-02-08.135 to 2015-02-10.367.
JPL Sentry1606 Feb. 10R E M O V E DRisk listing removed at 1552 UTC 10 Feb.
Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 9 Feb., 10 Feb. & 11 Feb.   -   References: MPEC 2015-C37 plus DOUs 2015-C38 & 2015-C43
2015 BE511NEODyS1642 Feb. 62057-211146.99e-05-6.07-6.130Based on 30 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2015-01-21.553 to 2015-01-28.507.
An assessment posting was noted by A/CC on 6 Feb.   -   References: no MPECs
2014 YNNEODyS1642 Feb. 62095-2111161.09e-05-5.85-6.590Based on 76 optical observations (of which 2 are rejected as outliers) from 2014-12-16.410 to 2015-01-23.270.
An assessment posting was noted by A/CC on 6 Feb.   -   References: no recent MPECs
2014 WZ365NEODyS1654 Feb. 112065-210521.23e-08-8.52-8.550Based on 23 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2014-11-27.368 to 2014-12-01.366.
JPL Sentry1654 Feb. 112050-206482.8e-06-5.86-6.200Analysis based on 23 observations spanning 3.9974 days (2014-Nov-27.367456 to 2014-Dec-01.36484). Diameter approximately 0.025 km. from mean, weighted H=25.6.
Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 11 Feb.   -   References: DOU 2015-C43
2014 WP362NEODyS1654 Feb. 112030-2113721.61e-06-4.79-5.310Based on 15 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2014-11-23.513 to 2014-11-26.607.
JPL Sentry1654 Feb. 112030-2114471.6e-06-4.78-5.260Analysis based on 15 observations spanning 3.0939 days (2014-Nov-23.51187 to 2014-Nov-26.605765). Diameter approximately 0.077 km. from mean, weighted H=23.2.
Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 11 Feb.   -   References: DOU 2015-C43
2014 WC201NEODyS1538 Feb. 212081-211466.15e-08-8.02-8.1-Based on 54 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2014-11-22.344 to 2014-12-01.490.
An assessment posting was noted by A/CC on 21 Feb.   -   References: DOU 2015-D47
2014 WA201NEODyS1600 Feb. 202075-208491.29e-04-4.83-4.830Based on 30 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2014-11-20.441 to 2014-12-19.123.
JPL Sentry1600 Feb. 202075-208261.6e-04-4.73-4.740Analysis based on 30 observations spanning 28.683 days (2014-Nov-20.440071 to 2014-Dec-19.122599). Diameter approximately 0.015 km. from mean, weighted H=26.8.
Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 20 Feb.   -   References: DOU 2015-D36
2014 WU200JPL Sentry2301 Feb. 42111-211232.4e-06-8.05-8.390Analysis based on 1 radar Doppler and 49 optical observations spanning 17.937 days (2014-Nov-22.28893 to 2014-Dec-10.22607). Diameter approximately 0.005 km. from mean, weighted H=28.9.
An assessment posting was noted by A/CC on 4 Feb.   -   References: no recent MPECs
2014 UU56NEODyS1600 Feb. 202070-209961.03e-07-8.78-8.830Based on 20 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2014-10-24.325 to 2014-10-28.458.
JPL Sentry1600 Feb. 20207811.3e-07-8.70-8.700Analysis based on 20 observations spanning 4.1332 days (2014-Oct-24.32451 to 2014-Oct-28.457704). Diameter approximately 0.007 km. from mean, weighted H=28.3.
Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 20 Feb.   -   References: DOU 2015-D36
2014 HN199NEODyS1600 Feb. 162043-207534.55e-09-8.63-8.630Based on 7 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2014-04-24.007 to 2014-04-27.983.
JPL Sentry2125 Feb. 132038-2111161.3e-08-8.32-8.740Analysis based on 7 observations spanning 3.9767 days (2014-Apr-24.00579 to 2014-Apr-27.98246). Diameter approximately 0.018 km. from mean, weighted H=26.4.
Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 13 Feb. & 16 Feb.   -   References: MPEC 2015-C70
2014 GQ17JPL Sentry2135 Feb. 42079-2097106.2e-07-7.56-8.090Analysis based on 89 observations spanning 25.019 days (2014-Apr-05.27668 to 2014-Apr-30.29565). Diameter approximately 0.013 km. from mean, weighted H=27.1.
An assessment posting was noted by A/CC on 4 Feb.   -   References: no recent MPECs
2011 XC2NEODyS1700 Feb. 232056-210161.86e-06-4.48-4.490Based on 35 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2011-12-08.199 to 2011-12-30.387.
JPL Sentry1700 Feb. 23205615.4e-07-4.98-4.980Analysis based on 35 observations spanning 22.188 days (2011-Dec-08.19806 to 2011-Dec-30.386484). Diameter approximately 0.085 km. from mean, weighted H=23.0.
Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 23 Feb.   -   References: DOU 2015-D62
2011 BT59JPL Sentry1914 Feb. 262052-209666.6e-07-3.42-3.430Analysis based on 10 observations spanning 7.9934 days (2011-Jan-30.536027 to 2011-Feb-07.529449). Diameter approximately 0.240 km. from mean, weighted H=20.8.
NEODyS1611 Feb. 26207813.62e-09-5.93-5.930Based on 10 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2011-01-30.537 to 2011-02-07.530.
Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 26 Feb.   -   References: DOU 2015-D86
2009 VZ39JPL Sentry0408 Feb. 172015-21128116.9e-06-6.20-7.510Analysis based on 8 observations spanning .04342 days (2009-Nov-10.27204 to 2009-Nov-10.31546). Diameter approximately 0.009 km. from mean, weighted H=27.9.
An assessment posting was noted by A/CC on 17 Feb.   -   References: no recent MPECs
99942 Apophis (2004 MN4)JPL Sentry1800 March 22060-2105128.9e-06-2.83-2.930Analysis based on 13 radar delay, 7 Doppler, and 4147 optical observations spanning 3635.5 days (2004-Mar-15.126289 to 2014-Feb-26.64670). Diameter approximately 0.370 km. from mean, weighted H=19.1.
An assessment posting was noted by A/CC on 2 March   -   References: no recent MPECs
C   L   E   A   R   E   D
2015 DF198NEODyS1703 Feb. 28R E M O V E D
JPL Sentry1700 Feb. 27R E M O V E DRisk listing removed at 1514 UTC 27 Feb.
Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 25 Feb., 27 Feb. & 28 Feb.   -   References: MPEC 2015-D81 plus DOUs 2015-D99 & 2015-D113
2015 DU180JPL Sentry1620 March 2R E M O V E DRisk listing removed at 1517 UTC 2 March
NEODyS1620 March 2R E M O V E D
Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 24 Feb., 26 Feb., 28 Feb. & 2 March   -   References: MPEC 2015-D69 plus DOUs 2015-D86, 2015-D113 & 2015-E11
2015 DA54NEODyS1703 Feb. 28R E M O V E D
JPL Sentry1700 Feb. 27R E M O V E DRisk listing removed at 1501 UTC 27 Feb.
Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 20 Feb., 21 Feb., 25 Feb., 27 Feb. & 28 Feb.   -   References: MPEC 2015-D39 plus DOUs 2015-D47, 2015-D78, 2015-D99 & 2015-E17
2015 DB1JPL Sentry1634 Feb. 21R E M O V E DRisk listing removed at 1553 UTC 21 Feb.
NEODyS1538 Feb. 21R E M O V E D
Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 19 Feb., 20 Feb. & 21 Feb.   -   References: MPEC 2015-D27 plus DOUs 2015-D36, 2015-D47 & 2015-E15
2015 CA1JPL Sentry1611 Feb. 18R E M O V E DRisk listing removed at 1500 UTC 18 Feb.
NEODyS1650 Feb. 17R E M O V E D
Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 11 Feb., 12 Feb., 14 Feb., 15 Feb., 16 Feb., 17 Feb. & 18 Feb.   -   References: MPEC 2015-C48 plus DOUs 2015-C57, 2015-C73, 2015-C80, 2015-D01, 2015-D08, 2015-D14, 2015-D47, 2015-D86, 2015-D99, 2015-D113 & 2015-E02
2015 BU92JPL Sentry1906 Feb. 2R E M O V E DRisk listing removed at 1855 UTC 2 Feb.
An assessment posting was noted by A/CC on 2 Feb.   -   References: no MPECs
2015 AK280JPL Sentry1606 Feb. 10R E M O V E DRisk listing removed at 1501 UTC 10 Feb.
NEODyS1606 Feb. 10R E M O V E D
Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 6 Feb. & 10 Feb.   -   References: DOUs 2015-C38, 2015-C43, 2015-C73 & 2015-D47
2015 AZ43NEODyS1556 Feb. 24R E M O V E D
JPL Sentry2231 Feb. 23R E M O V E DRisk listing removed at 2201 UTC 23 Feb.
Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 4 Feb., 6 Feb., 7 Feb., 8 Feb., 9 Feb., 10 Feb., 12 Feb., 13 Feb., 14 Feb., 15 Feb., 16 Feb., 18 Feb., 20 Feb., 21 Feb., 23 Feb. & 24 Feb.   -   References: DOUs 2015-C10, 2015-C17, 2015-C20, 2015-C25, 2015-C34, 2015-C38, 2015-C57, 2015-C65, 2015-C73, 2015-C80, 2015-D01, 2015-D14, 2015-D36, 2015-D47 & 2015-E02, radar: 23 Feb.
2014 YO44NEODyS1611 Feb. 9R E M O V E D
An assessment posting was noted by A/CC on 9 Feb.   -   References: no recent MPECs
2014 XM7NEODyS1606 Feb. 10R E M O V E D
An assessment posting was noted by A/CC on 10 Feb.   -   References: DOU 2015-C38
2003 LN6JPL Sentry1831 March 2R E M O V E DRisk listing removed at 1823 UTC 2 March
An assessment posting was noted by A/CC on 2 March   -   References: MPEC 2015-E10

Legend: VI# = VI count, Prob Cum = cumulative probability, PS Cum/Max = cumulative/maximum Palermo Scale, TS = Torino Scale (next 100 years)

For a list of risk-rated objects currently under observation, see our ephemerides page.

An impact solution, also known as a "virtual impactor" (VI), is not a prediction but rather a possibility derived from a variant orbit calculation that cannot be eliminated yet based on the existing data. Elimination can come quickly with just a little further observation or may take weeks or months, sometimes years. Once superceded or eliminated, a former impact solution has zero relevance to an object's risk. See Jon Giorgini's "Understanding Risk Pages" for more information.


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