A/CC's Consolidated Risk Tables

Earth Impact Risk Ratings Posted in the Last 31 Days

Compiled at 1622 UTC on 5 March 2015

[ The Tracking News | ephemerides | cleared ]

Missing something? Check the archives for objects not under active observation or recent analysis.

Notes: The time horizon for JPL is 100 years from today and for NEODyS is usually the year 2090. Both risk monitors also post a few special objects with impact solutions beyond 100 years. For the latest official risk assessments, and for explanations of terminology and methodology, see the JPL NEO Program Sentry and NEODyS CLOMON2 risk pages.
0000NNN000 Object	Risk Monitor	A/CC Noted Time & Day UTC	0000T0000 Year Range	VI #	000NN00 Prob Cum	T0000 PS Cum	T0000 PS Max	T S	Notes for Latest Risk Assessments

2015 DD54	NEODyS	1602 March 5	2114	1	2.24e-06	-6.30	-6.3	n/a	Based on 87 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2015-01-20.326 to 2015-02-27.624.
	JPL Sentry	1520 March 1	2114	1	1.8e-06	-6.40	-6.40	0	Analysis based on 85 observations spanning 38.299 days (2015-Jan-20.32497 to 2015-Feb-27.623554). Diameter approximately 0.028 km. from mean, weighted H=25.4.
	Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 20 Feb., 21 Feb., 23 Feb., 25 Feb., 26 Feb., 28 Feb., 1 March & 5 March - References: MPEC 2015-D42 plus DOUs 2015-D47, 2015-D62, 2015-D78, 2015-D113, 2015-E02 & 2015-E17

2015 CT13	NEODyS	1620 March 2	2109	3	1.4e-07	-7.72	-7.92	0	Based on 34 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2015-02-13.515 to 2015-02-27.596.
	JPL Sentry	1620 March 2	R E M O V E D						Risk listing removed at 1510 UTC 2 March
	Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 15 Feb., 16 Feb., 18 Feb., 20 Feb., 25 Feb. & 2 March - References: MPEC 2015-C85 plus DOUs 2015-D14, 2015-D36, 2015-D78 & 2015-E11

2015 CL13	NEODyS	1600 Feb. 16	2090-2106	5	1.19e-07	-7.40	-7.65	0	Based on 49 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2015-02-13.308 to 2015-02-15.781.
	JPL Sentry	1600 Feb. 16	2090-2106	3	6.6e-08	-7.65	-7.89	0	Analysis based on 49 observations spanning 2.4735 days (2015-Feb-13.30705 to 2015-Feb-15.780574). Diameter approximately 0.025 km. from mean, weighted H=25.7.
	Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 14 Feb., 15 Feb. & 16 Feb. - References: MPEC 2015-C77 plus DOU 2015-D01

2015 CP	NEODyS	1654 Feb. 11	2092-2106	2	7.55e-09	-8.64	-8.77	0	Based on 27 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2015-02-08.135 to 2015-02-10.367.
	JPL Sentry	1606 Feb. 10	R E M O V E D						Risk listing removed at 1552 UTC 10 Feb.
	Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 9 Feb., 10 Feb. & 11 Feb. - References: MPEC 2015-C37 plus DOUs 2015-C38 & 2015-C43

2015 BE511	NEODyS	1642 Feb. 6	2057-2111	4	6.99e-05	-6.07	-6.13	0	Based on 30 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2015-01-21.553 to 2015-01-28.507.
2015 BE511	An assessment posting was noted by A/CC on 6 Feb. - References: no MPECs

2014 YN	NEODyS	1642 Feb. 6	2095-2111	16	1.09e-05	-5.85	-6.59	0	Based on 76 optical observations (of which 2 are rejected as outliers) from 2014-12-16.410 to 2015-01-23.270.
2014 YN	An assessment posting was noted by A/CC on 6 Feb. - References: no recent MPECs

2014 WZ365	NEODyS	1654 Feb. 11	2065-2105	2	1.23e-08	-8.52	-8.55	0	Based on 23 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2014-11-27.368 to 2014-12-01.366.
	JPL Sentry	1654 Feb. 11	2050-2064	8	2.8e-06	-5.86	-6.20	0	Analysis based on 23 observations spanning 3.9974 days (2014-Nov-27.367456 to 2014-Dec-01.36484). Diameter approximately 0.025 km. from mean, weighted H=25.6.
	Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 11 Feb. - References: DOU 2015-C43

2014 WP362	NEODyS	1654 Feb. 11	2030-2113	72	1.61e-06	-4.79	-5.31	0	Based on 15 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2014-11-23.513 to 2014-11-26.607.
	JPL Sentry	1654 Feb. 11	2030-2114	47	1.6e-06	-4.78	-5.26	0	Analysis based on 15 observations spanning 3.0939 days (2014-Nov-23.51187 to 2014-Nov-26.605765). Diameter approximately 0.077 km. from mean, weighted H=23.2.
	Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 11 Feb. - References: DOU 2015-C43

2014 WC201	NEODyS	1538 Feb. 21	2081-2114	6	6.15e-08	-8.02	-8.1	-	Based on 54 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2014-11-22.344 to 2014-12-01.490.
2014 WC201	An assessment posting was noted by A/CC on 21 Feb. - References: DOU 2015-D47

2014 WA201	NEODyS	1600 Feb. 20	2075-2084	9	1.29e-04	-4.83	-4.83	0	Based on 30 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2014-11-20.441 to 2014-12-19.123.
	JPL Sentry	1600 Feb. 20	2075-2082	6	1.6e-04	-4.73	-4.74	0	Analysis based on 30 observations spanning 28.683 days (2014-Nov-20.440071 to 2014-Dec-19.122599). Diameter approximately 0.015 km. from mean, weighted H=26.8.
	Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 20 Feb. - References: DOU 2015-D36

2014 WU200	JPL Sentry	2301 Feb. 4	2111-2112	3	2.4e-06	-8.05	-8.39	0	Analysis based on 1 radar Doppler and 49 optical observations spanning 17.937 days (2014-Nov-22.28893 to 2014-Dec-10.22607). Diameter approximately 0.005 km. from mean, weighted H=28.9.
2014 WU200	An assessment posting was noted by A/CC on 4 Feb. - References: no recent MPECs

2014 UU56	NEODyS	1600 Feb. 20	2070-2099	6	1.03e-07	-8.78	-8.83	0	Based on 20 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2014-10-24.325 to 2014-10-28.458.
	JPL Sentry	1600 Feb. 20	2078	1	1.3e-07	-8.70	-8.70	0	Analysis based on 20 observations spanning 4.1332 days (2014-Oct-24.32451 to 2014-Oct-28.457704). Diameter approximately 0.007 km. from mean, weighted H=28.3.
	Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 20 Feb. - References: DOU 2015-D36

2014 HN199	NEODyS	1600 Feb. 16	2043-2075	3	4.55e-09	-8.63	-8.63	0	Based on 7 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2014-04-24.007 to 2014-04-27.983.
	JPL Sentry	2125 Feb. 13	2038-2111	16	1.3e-08	-8.32	-8.74	0	Analysis based on 7 observations spanning 3.9767 days (2014-Apr-24.00579 to 2014-Apr-27.98246). Diameter approximately 0.018 km. from mean, weighted H=26.4.
	Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 13 Feb. & 16 Feb. - References: MPEC 2015-C70

2014 GQ17	JPL Sentry	2135 Feb. 4	2079-2097	10	6.2e-07	-7.56	-8.09	0	Analysis based on 89 observations spanning 25.019 days (2014-Apr-05.27668 to 2014-Apr-30.29565). Diameter approximately 0.013 km. from mean, weighted H=27.1.
2014 GQ17	An assessment posting was noted by A/CC on 4 Feb. - References: no recent MPECs

2011 XC2	NEODyS	1700 Feb. 23	2056-2101	6	1.86e-06	-4.48	-4.49	0	Based on 35 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2011-12-08.199 to 2011-12-30.387.
	JPL Sentry	1700 Feb. 23	2056	1	5.4e-07	-4.98	-4.98	0	Analysis based on 35 observations spanning 22.188 days (2011-Dec-08.19806 to 2011-Dec-30.386484). Diameter approximately 0.085 km. from mean, weighted H=23.0.
	Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 23 Feb. - References: DOU 2015-D62

2011 BT59	JPL Sentry	1914 Feb. 26	2052-2096	6	6.6e-07	-3.42	-3.43	0	Analysis based on 10 observations spanning 7.9934 days (2011-Jan-30.536027 to 2011-Feb-07.529449). Diameter approximately 0.240 km. from mean, weighted H=20.8.
	NEODyS	1611 Feb. 26	2078	1	3.62e-09	-5.93	-5.93	0	Based on 10 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2011-01-30.537 to 2011-02-07.530.
	Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 26 Feb. - References: DOU 2015-D86

2009 VZ39	JPL Sentry	0408 Feb. 17	2015-2112	811	6.9e-06	-6.20	-7.51	0	Analysis based on 8 observations spanning .04342 days (2009-Nov-10.27204 to 2009-Nov-10.31546). Diameter approximately 0.009 km. from mean, weighted H=27.9.
2009 VZ39	An assessment posting was noted by A/CC on 17 Feb. - References: no recent MPECs

99942 Apophis (2004 MN4)	JPL Sentry	1800 March 2	2060-2105	12	8.9e-06	-2.83	-2.93	0	Analysis based on 13 radar delay, 7 Doppler, and 4147 optical observations spanning 3635.5 days (2004-Mar-15.126289 to 2014-Feb-26.64670). Diameter approximately 0.370 km. from mean, weighted H=19.1.
99942 Apophis (2004 MN4)	An assessment posting was noted by A/CC on 2 March - References: no recent MPECs
C L E A R E D
2015 DF198	NEODyS	1703 Feb. 28	R E M O V E D
	JPL Sentry	1700 Feb. 27	R E M O V E D						Risk listing removed at 1514 UTC 27 Feb.
	Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 25 Feb., 27 Feb. & 28 Feb. - References: MPEC 2015-D81 plus DOUs 2015-D99 & 2015-D113

2015 DU180	JPL Sentry	1620 March 2	R E M O V E D						Risk listing removed at 1517 UTC 2 March
	NEODyS	1620 March 2	R E M O V E D
	Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 24 Feb., 26 Feb., 28 Feb. & 2 March - References: MPEC 2015-D69 plus DOUs 2015-D86, 2015-D113 & 2015-E11

2015 DA54	NEODyS	1703 Feb. 28	R E M O V E D
	JPL Sentry	1700 Feb. 27	R E M O V E D						Risk listing removed at 1501 UTC 27 Feb.
	Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 20 Feb., 21 Feb., 25 Feb., 27 Feb. & 28 Feb. - References: MPEC 2015-D39 plus DOUs 2015-D47, 2015-D78, 2015-D99 & 2015-E17

2015 DB1	JPL Sentry	1634 Feb. 21	R E M O V E D						Risk listing removed at 1553 UTC 21 Feb.
	NEODyS	1538 Feb. 21	R E M O V E D
	Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 19 Feb., 20 Feb. & 21 Feb. - References: MPEC 2015-D27 plus DOUs 2015-D36, 2015-D47 & 2015-E15

2015 CA1	JPL Sentry	1611 Feb. 18	R E M O V E D						Risk listing removed at 1500 UTC 18 Feb.
	NEODyS	1650 Feb. 17	R E M O V E D
	Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 11 Feb., 12 Feb., 14 Feb., 15 Feb., 16 Feb., 17 Feb. & 18 Feb. - References: MPEC 2015-C48 plus DOUs 2015-C57, 2015-C73, 2015-C80, 2015-D01, 2015-D08, 2015-D14, 2015-D47, 2015-D86, 2015-D99, 2015-D113 & 2015-E02

2015 BU92	JPL Sentry	1906 Feb. 2	R E M O V E D						Risk listing removed at 1855 UTC 2 Feb.
2015 BU92	An assessment posting was noted by A/CC on 2 Feb. - References: no MPECs

2015 AK280	JPL Sentry	1606 Feb. 10	R E M O V E D						Risk listing removed at 1501 UTC 10 Feb.
	NEODyS	1606 Feb. 10	R E M O V E D
	Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 6 Feb. & 10 Feb. - References: DOUs 2015-C38, 2015-C43, 2015-C73 & 2015-D47

2015 AZ43	NEODyS	1556 Feb. 24	R E M O V E D
	JPL Sentry	2231 Feb. 23	R E M O V E D						Risk listing removed at 2201 UTC 23 Feb.
	Assessment postings were noted by A/CC on 4 Feb., 6 Feb., 7 Feb., 8 Feb., 9 Feb., 10 Feb., 12 Feb., 13 Feb., 14 Feb., 15 Feb., 16 Feb., 18 Feb., 20 Feb., 21 Feb., 23 Feb. & 24 Feb. - References: DOUs 2015-C10, 2015-C17, 2015-C20, 2015-C25, 2015-C34, 2015-C38, 2015-C57, 2015-C65, 2015-C73, 2015-C80, 2015-D01, 2015-D14, 2015-D36, 2015-D47 & 2015-E02, radar: 23 Feb.

2014 YO44	NEODyS	1611 Feb. 9	R E M O V E D
2014 YO44	An assessment posting was noted by A/CC on 9 Feb. - References: no recent MPECs

2014 XM7	NEODyS	1606 Feb. 10	R E M O V E D
2014 XM7	An assessment posting was noted by A/CC on 10 Feb. - References: DOU 2015-C38

2003 LN6	JPL Sentry	1831 March 2	R E M O V E D						Risk listing removed at 1823 UTC 2 March
2003 LN6	An assessment posting was noted by A/CC on 2 March - References: MPEC 2015-E10

Legend: VI# = VI count, Prob Cum = cumulative probability, PS Cum/Max = cumulative/maximum Palermo Scale, TS = Torino Scale (next 100 years)

For a list of risk-rated objects currently under observation, see our ephemerides page.

An impact solution, also known as a "virtual impactor" (VI), is not a prediction but rather a possibility derived from a variant orbit calculation that cannot be eliminated yet based on the existing data. Elimination can come quickly with just a little further observation or may take weeks or months, sometimes years. Once superceded or eliminated, a former impact solution has zero relevance to an object's risk. See Jon Giorgini's "Understanding Risk Pages" for more information.

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